12 Picks For Tomorrow (Thursday)
By admin on Apr 1, 2009 in stock trading
Today’s 11 picks did pretty well overall. PLD went up 0.9%, APL went up 16.1%, UYG went up 3.1%, C went up 5.9%, CENX went up 9%, GNW went up 5.3%, ODP went up 9.9%, ABK went up 5.1%, FRE went down 2.6%, GGP went down 8.5%, FNM went dow 2.9% — good numbers on a good day for the stock market overall. The three stocks that went down I actually mentioned that I didn’t particularly like their charts. And the two stocks I picked out as being particularly good went up 9% and 9.9% (these are the two stocks I would have bought.)
I still don’t have my money in my new stock account yet although I’m getting closer. It’ll definitely be next week before I can make any real trades. But I’m still making my stock picks and watching them to try to fine tune my strategy.
My stock screener picked 12 stocks for tomorrow:
MAC $7.31
It went up 16.8% today. A rise over $8.20 looks likely to me. I might buy into this one depending on how the rest of the stocks stack up. It’s currently up another 1.8% in the after market so I’m not sure at what price I’d be able to get in.
TXT $6.45
MTL $4.50
It looks like this one has had a false positive a few times over the last three months so I’d be cautious. I’d probably avoid it although there’s probably a good shot it’ll have a big day too.
PCX $3.93
This one has had this same signal three times in the last three months and twice it had a negative day, the third time it had some big gains. It seems like a risky play that could have big rewards.
SGY $3.59
Another one that’s had some false signals. Another one I’d probably be too cautious to get into.
AIB $1.96
This is actually one I was looking at the other day. I’m interested in these types of stocks but it sure feels risky to get into a day after a 26% gain. That being said, I’d be tempted.
SAY $1.70
The good side is that it seems to have pretty solid support, the bad side is that it’s tripped this signal three previous times recently and it’s gone nowhere. Is the fourth time the charm? With the solid support I might be interested this one.
IO $1.64
FOE $1.63
CROX $1.46
This one looks like trouble. Sure it could keep rising but looking at it’s chart a big loss looksmore likely.
AIG $1.07
The last time this signal got tripped AIG went up 66% in just one day (and kept on going until the price had more than tripled.) I wouldn’t be that surprised to see a similar run this time. But I also wouldn’t be surprised to see a lot of that gain coming before the open. It may be difficult to get in at the price I’d want to.
EBHI $0.53
The last time this stock tripped this signal it went down 46% the next day. Considering the 26% gain today that is pretty scary.
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Overall I’m disturbed by how many of these stocks have tripped my signal with poor results in the past. It makes me wonder if I need to refine things further. My picks for tomorrow are MAC & AIG. But I’d want to get in at good prices. I wouldn’t want to get in after a huge open. I’m feeling less confident about these picks than I did my previous picks. We’ll see if that lack of confidence is warrented tomorrow.
I averaged my screener’s 11 suggested trades for today: +3.8% — The Dow went up 2% and the Nasdaq 1.5% as a baseline.
What I really want to look for are some signs that FRE, GGP, & FNM showed that they were not as strong as my screener thought they were. As you can see in my post I “sensed” that there was something wrong with them before I bought them but I’d like have something more tangible to go on other than my “feelings.”
admin | Apr 1, 2009 | Reply
Noon Update On Today’s Plays:
MAC: +15%
About half of that gain is on a gap up. And this seems quite common. Yesterday I would have done better buying in on the open but it does seem that being able to get in during the premarket (or the previous day’s aftermarket) is probably the best plan.
TXT: +11%
Another gap-up but like with MAC there’s been more gains after that as well.
MTL: +2%
Gap-up and it’s fallen since the open. It looks like I was right to not want to get into this one.
PCX: +6%
Another gap-up. No gains since the open.
SGY: +11%
Gap-up but it has had about half of this gain since the open.
AIB: +17%
It looks like I was right to be tempted. It actually opened up even higher than this. So this would have only been a good play if I could have got in during the aftermarket or premarket at a price closer to yesterday’s close.
SAY: +5%
I feel like a broken record: Gap-up. Did every single stock on the market get up today or just my picks? Looking at the overall markets you can see that it was a common thing today and of course so far it’s been a huge up day for the markets. Dow is up 3.5% and the NASDAQ is up 4.1%.
IO: +8%
Gap-up.
FOE: +24%
Gap-up again but this one has had a lot of post open gains.
CROX: +23%
Only a small gap-up on this one, most of the gains during the day.
AIG: +7%
It looks like there were definitely better plays on the board than this one although it opened quite high and I probably could have locked in a bigger gain if I had moved fast (and been in yesterday’s pre-market.) Looking at today’s chart I probably would have been tempted to sell this around $1.15 which would have locked in a nice $7 gain (had I got in at yesterday’s close.)
EBHI: -4%
It looks like I was right to be scared of this stock. I probably could have lost even more because it dipped really hard on the opening.
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10 of these 12 picks are out performing the market (and that’s saying something because the market is doing really really good.)
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More and more I’m not thinking about the picks themselves, I’m becoming confident that my system consistently picks stocks that are about to move. The question is how do I get into them and should I sell at the first sign of any weakness or should I consider a longer holding pattern?
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Let’s take a look at yesterday’s picks:
ODP: +18%
This is a stock that never really showed any weakness yesterday so it’s like I never would have sold it. That’s looking like a really good thing with another 18% gain so far today.
CENX: +23%
Like ODP this one never really showed any weakness yesterday.
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Obviously with these two plays I’d have been better off to hold through the next day. I mention this because I’ve been thinking about truly doing this strategy “day trader” style and getting rid of my stocks at the end of the day no matter what. But maybe that’d be leaving too much money on the table? If a stock has a clear build up through the day - I should probably hold to give it a chance to keep building the next day.
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How about Tuesday’s pick? FRP is up 6% today. But I think it’s a good example of a stock I probably should have cut loose on Day 1. I think I could have got out at about 85 cents because at that point it seemed clear the stock was in a downward spiral and locked in a really good profit. Sure it’s back at 85 cents today but that means I would have held my money for two more days with no real movement. And I’d still be in a situation of trying to figure out when to get out.
admin | Apr 2, 2009 | Reply
MAC is up big again today and looking at it’s chart I’m pretty sure I’d have still been in. I’d have a gain of about 35% on that one…
admin | Apr 3, 2009 | Reply